Thoughts on a post

[Yui Nausicaaさん]

【コラム】Nintendo Switchは誰に向けたもの？ 任天堂の狙いを考察 

http://www.inside-games.jp/article/2017/02/12/105298.html

My thoughts below

If sharing/physical communication aspect of Switch really works out, we might see a very strong demand driven by network effect after launch. A simple way to observe this is looking at adoption in calendar year 2Q17 and 3Q17 and 1Q18, 2Q18, 3Q18. We would see significant sequential growth in 2Q17 and 3Q17 on QoQ basis. 1Q18, 2Q18 and 3Q18 should see significant growth on YoY basis. If determination of significant growth is difficult, we can us other reference models(other home console such as wii, ps and xbox) to see if Switch's adoption pattern is different from that of those consoles. That sharing aspect of Switch might lead Switch to experience an "exponential growth."

Don't think Switch is only targeting or just for young adult. Should think from a product diffusion point view. Who might be the majority of early adopters? Of course not those without disposable income or those cannot make purchasing decision on a product with a price tag of 30K yen. Kids generally have to ask parents to buy those stuff for them and clever parents would suggest a wait-and-see strategy due to relatively high risk in console launch stage. (or they might want to purchase it as a present in holiday season or for occasion such as birthday). We should expect Switch to diffuse vertically from young adult age range to older and younger generation. 

Actually, there is less discussed population; that is female population. A female-oriented great game which fully utilizes the function of Switch along with nice cm will boost the penetration in female market. 

There are lots of things to do to diffuse the product but would be better in an organized way. I think Nintendo does a good job at trying to appeal to it's early adopters.